Sunday, February 24, 2008

And the Oscar® goes to . . . . .

80th Academy Awards®
24 February 2008
Winners

Full list of all 80th Academy Award winners and nominees. There is a link on the right sidebar, too - - 80th Winners & Nominees.

In the previous post, I gave my picks for the major awards. My hypothesis was that the data collected through my Awards and Film Festival Pages, showing the most wins in a particular nominated category, would correlate to support an Oscar win in that category. I went with the data I had collected, and these were my conclusions, not including some of the tech stuff and short films (three I missed marked in red):

NOTE: I really didn't have enough data for the score and song, so to be fair, these first two were really my choices.
Best original score: Dario Marianelli, ATONEMENT, because I REALLY like the last name!
Best song: "Falling Slowly," ONCE, written by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova .

Best cinematography: THERE WILL BE BLOOD.
Best supporting actress: Amy Ryan for GONE BABY GONE. MISSED
Best supporting actor: Javier Bardem for NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN.
Best actress: Julie Christie for AWAY FROM HER. MISSED
Best actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for THERE WILL BE BLOOD.
Best animated feature: RATAEOUILLE, paws down.
Best documentary: SICKO, Michael Moore. MISSED
Best foreign-language feature: THE COUNTERFEITERS, Austria.
Best original screenplay: JUNO, by Diablo Cody.
Best adapted screenplay: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, by Ethan & Joel Coen.
Best director(s): Ethan and Joel Coen, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN.
Best motion picture feature (best picture) - NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN.

I gave a rationale for the picks in the previous post. Now I shall give the rationale for the three I missed. They were and they went to:

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard for LA VIE EN ROSE.
Best Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton for MICHAEL CLAYTON.
Best Documentary: TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE.

In the best supporting actress category, Ruby Dee was nominated for AMERICAN GANGSTER, Tilda Swinton for MICHAEL CLAYTON, and Amy Ryan for GONE BABY GONE. SAG nominated all of them in this category along with Cate Blanchett, I'M NOT THERE, and Catherine Keener, INTO THE WILD. Neither of these last two ladies had shown any legs in other awards.

SAG gave the award to Dee. Because all the data was stronger for Amy Ryan, I went with Ryan, figuring the SAG award for Dee was a sentimental one. I never gave Swinton a thought because her award tally was almost nothing. Apparently, the actual vote was really split in this category. Anyway, my data showed Ryan, so I went with her, and she did not win.

Both Julie Christi and Marion Cotillard were nominated by SAG in the best actress category. SAG gave the award to Christi, and the other data for Cotillard was weak as it was for Swinton, so I went with Christi. Again, with the rules.

Members of the Academy have told me that when they face that final ballot, they often vote their "gut," and the odd thing was that my "gut" was telling me to go ahead and vote for Marion Cotillard, but I stayed true to my experiment.

The documentary category is like the music categories, there isn't that much data out there to make a strong case for any particular film. SICKO had the most votes according to the data available to me.

However, the experiment basically worked. It worked perfectly in the other categories. This year, at least.

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