Box Office and the Oscars®

WINTER'S BONE

THE KING'S SPEECH

There is often speculation that motion pictures that do well at the Box Office have more of a chance of winning an Oscar®. I have been an "Oscar watcher" for longer than I shall admit here and, frankly, there does not seem to be a correlation. I would love to research it and do a quantified statistical study. Anyone want to fund it? But, then, there are so many variables.

So, let's get down to crunching some numbers pertaining to this year's nominees for Best Motion Picture and their Box Office numbers just before they were nominated. We will do the winner's stats after the 83rd Academy Awards®, February 17.

Having compared the grosses of the ten nominees on January 24, let us rank them all, highest gross first with the number of their nominations in parentheses:

TOY STORY 3, $414.9M (5); INCEPTION, $292.5 (8); TRUE GRIT, $137.9M (10); THE SOCIAL NETWORK, $95.4M (8); BLACK SWAN, $83.2M (5 ); THE FIGHTER $72.6 (7); THE KING'S SPEECH, $57.3M (12 ); THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (4 ); 127 HOURS (6); and WINTER'S BONE $6.2m (4). (For more see: Box Office Mojo.)

Please, keep in mind that these movies were released at different times. Some had a longer time to amass Box Office numbers than others but, even so, one can easily see that the Box Office receipts had little impact on the number of nominations a movie received.

To get a better comparison, let's break them down starting with TOY STORY 3, which was leading the Box Office receipts by miles just before the Best Picture nominations were announced. It was the earliest Best Picture nominee to release, June 18, and it's gross was $414.9 Million on January 24. By comparison, the lowest-budgeted independent movie, WINTER'S BONE, released June 11th, with a gross of $6.2M. The highest and the lowest. Yet, WINTER'S BONE is nominated for four Oscars, Toy Story, five.

The second best gross was INCEPTION'S $292.5M, released July 16th. We can compare that to the low-budget nominated movie released only two days before on July 9th, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, which came in at $20.8M.

Moving on to Oct 1st, and to one of the most anticipated movies of the year, THE SOCIAL NETWORK. Its gross was $95.4M.

THE KING'S SPEECH was released November 26th, almost two months later, and grossed $57.3M. Do the math, use an algorithm, whatever, and you see right away that THE KING'S SPEECH was only $48.1M behind THE SOCIAL NETWORK on January 24th and, therefore, THE KING'S SPEECH shows stronger legs than THE SOCIAL NETWORK. Also released in November, 127 HOURS opened on November 5th, and it grossed a weak $11.2M. Wobbly legs at best.

Three nominated movies were released in December. BLACK SWAN opened first, December 3rd, THE FIGHTER on December 10, followed by TRUE GRIT on December 22nd. The last Best Picture nominee to open.

How do their gross totals on January 24 compare? One would think that the last movie opening would have the least gross. Not so. The last film grossed the most behind INCEPTION, which was released five months earlier. The grosses for the movies opening from the 3rd to the 22nd of December were: BLACK SWAN $83.2M, THE FIGHTER $72.6M, and TRUE GRIT $137.9M. I predict TRUE GRIT has legs of a stallion.

Click the title of this post to access the Official 2011 Oscar Web site. See previous posts, below, for more, and there will be many more posts between now and the February 27th 83rd Academy Awards Gala. Next Post: "Acting Nominations Compared to Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards."  The SAG awards will be held tomorrow night.

Proposed Rule Change for Foreign Movies

I wish to make a proposal to change the names of the Best Motion Picture and the Best Foreign Language Film (BFLF) categories effective for the 2009 81st Academy Awards®. A change is long overdue. Read on to see why it may make some sense.

In June, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences® (AMPAS®) mailed rules and entry forms to 95 Countries inviting them to submit a feature motion picture for the Best Foreign Language Film of 2007 Oscar® category. The 80th Academy Awards will be this coming February.

The rules for the Best Foreign Language Film (BFLF) this year are contained in Rule 14. The old language rule for the BFLF read that the film must be in the official language of the submitting country. Last year, the Academy designated that, "A foreign language film is defined as a feature-length motion picture produced outside the United States of America with a predominantly non-English dialogue track." The members made no changes in this rule for 2007. See link on right sidebar under Archives for July 2006 for more on the rule changes last year.

Apparently, the two-phase committee screening process instituted last year is still in place, since the previous nominating process has not been rescinded. Five motion pictures will be nominated from the committee(s). The final voting for the BFLF Award still will be restricted to active and life Academy members who have attended Academy screenings, or other exhibitions, and have been certified as to having seen all five motion pictures nominated for the award.

It is the producer of a motion picture who accepts the golden statuette for a Best Motion Picture at the Academy. However, in most countries, it is the director who accepts awards for Best Picture (Film). Therefore, in regards to the BFLF, the Academy this year determined that, "The Academy statuette (Oscar®) will be awarded to the picture and accepted by the director on behalf of the film's creative talents." Finally!

Someone took issue about my statement that Géraldine Chaplin might be nominated for her role as Aurora in THE ORPHANAGE (the official selection from Spain submitted for the BFLF category), which I wrote in a previous post. I wish to point out that the Academy rule is specific. The rule states, "Films submitted for BFLF Award consideration may also qualify for the 80th Annual Academy Awards in other categories, provided they meet the requirements of the special rules governing those categories." In this case, any special rules governing the acting categories.

Actually, Rule One, Paragraph 3, states that, "Awards of Merit in the form of gold statuette trophies of the Academy (Oscar®) shall be conferred annually for the following achievements: . . . " and the major awards are outlined.

Rule Two, Paragraph 8, states, "Motion pictures from all countries shall be eligible for the annual awards listed in Rule One [sic] Paragraph 3, as long as they satisfy the requirements of the other applicable rules, and contain English subtitles if released in a foreign language."

In other words, the spoken language in the movie is not a problem in any category other than the BFLF, yet the Academy specifically requires that motion pictures from other countries adhere to the non-English rule. Clint Eastwood's movie LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA, filmed in Japanese, was nominated with the American movies for Best Motion Picture of 2006, under the current rules. Mel Gibson made a movie in a language other than English, too, APOCALYPTO, 2006. Both were domestically produced, but they are non-English movies. BABEL, Best Motion Picture of 2006 is a multi-language movie. Spoken English is only a small portion of the dialogue.

One of the hottest movies this year will be THE KITE RUNNER, directed by Marc Forster (FINDING NEVERLAND, 2002), whom I've been told chose to film KITE RUNNER (USA) in English, Dari, Pashtu, Urdu and Russian, much like last year's Oscar winner BABEL At any rate, there will be more multi-language movies made by American companies and foreign countries in coming years.

Besides spoken words, motion pictures have visual, rythmic, technical languages that are far more important than the ethnic dialogue attached to them. I have a proposal for a change in the rules for Best Motion Picture, and Best Foreign Language Film categories - - both categories need renaming. Either remove the word "Language" from the BFLF category, or the two categories should read: Best Motion Picture in English and Best Motion Picture in a Language other than English.

My questions are, "If American directors can make movies in any language and submit their movie to the Academy, why are directors outside America required to use a language other than English? Why can't a Japanese director make a movie solely in English for his country to submit as their official representative foreign motion picture for the Oscars, if an American director can make a motion picture solely in Japanese and it is eligible for an Oscar, no language restrictions applied?"

The answer is: Because of the way the current rules are written and the categories are named. By insisting upon a language qualifier, the Academy keeps the foreign producers and directors at a disadvantage at the U.S. box office. The rules as written are now discriminatory, but I certainly advocate including foreign motion pictures at the Oscars.

Also, why is the top category "Best Motion Picture" while the foreign category is "Best Foreign Language Film?" Both are feature-length movies made through the same process and qualify within the same length restrictions. Therefore, I suggest the categories be designated as: Best (Domestic, American, U.S, etc.) Motion Picture of 20_ _, and Best Foreign Motion Picture of 20_ _.

At the very least, the designation should be motion picture, and not film for the foreign category. It has become customary to use film with the other categories along with their other qualifiers (feature, short, live, documentary, animated, etc.), but they are all motion pictures.

I once had a film professor at Southern Cal (USC) who clarified it this way, "A motion picture is a filmed or taped series of pictures that move, which is viewed by some mechanical or electronic means." On the other hand, "Film is one material (tape or film) and/or process that allows the motion picture to be made and viewed." I like those definitions.

Of course, all of this will be a mute point in less than ten years when everything will be digital, and new students will ask, "Tape? Film? What are those?"

However, a motion picuture will still be a series of pictures that move, but the new definition is likely to include holographic pictures that move. It is even possible within that same ten years the Academy will be obliged to adopt a new name for this century such as, American Academy of Cinematic Arts and Sciences. Think about it!

I suggest these changes because I believe they are needed due to this quickly evolving electronic and cultural age in which we live. I hope the Board of Governors will give these suggestions serious consideration.

SPIDEY OPENS SUMMER MOVIE SEASON EARLY

The traditional opening of the summer movie season is the Friday of the Memorial Day weekend. However, the movie gate has been swinging open for the summer season earlier and earlier each year.

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: At World's End will open on the traditional date this year, 25 May. Traditional season: Memorial Day to Labor Day.

Oops! SPIDER-MAN 3 opened 4 May and set the bar for the "official" season by grossing over 150 million in the U.S. alone, breaking all box office records. Sympathy to the other films that opened the same time, such as the Eric Bana, Drew Barrymore, Robert Duvall cutesy LUCKY YOU, and the multi-directed, critically well-received PARIS, JE T'AIME. THE WAITRESS opened two days earlier, but caught a pie in the face anyway.

Next big blockbusters of the season? How about OCEAN'S THIRTEEN (June8), HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX (13 July), HAIRSPRAY (20 July), THE SIMPSONS MOVIE (27 July), and THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM (23 August)?

Some long-distance runners not mentioned above may be GEORGIA RULE (11 May), NANCY DREW (15 June), RUSH HOUR 3 (10 August) that is scheduled to open against STARDUST, and THE INVASION (17 August). One that critics think will not have legs? J-Marc's EL CANTANTE (The Singer), and some have dubbed it "CAN-NOT-A".

We'll see how they all shakes out come September.

More on DREAMGIRLS Snub and Tidbits

According to an article supplied to Yahoo! by Reuters, it turns out that the movie DREAMGIRLS, which led all the Oscar nominees with eight nominations, is a historical omission in the Best Film category. Never in the 79-year history of the awards has the film with the most nominations failed to earn a best picture nomination. Furthermore, DREAMGIRLS box office gross is second only to THE DEPARTED.

BEST FILM NOMINEES (in order of best gross, millions, as of 21 January. DREAMGIRLS, not nominated in this category is in brackets, shows where it would have ranked in the box office gross had it been):

THE DEPARTED = $121,732,446
[DREAMGIRLS = $78,669,177]
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE = $59,593,606
THE QUEEN = $35,557,521
BABEL = $23,658,420
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA = $2,442,552

BABEL received seven nominations, Mexico's PAN'S LABYRINTH (nominated in the best foreign language film category) and THE QUEEN, six each. Martin Scorsese's THE DEPARTED snared five each as did BLOOD DIAMONDS.

TIDBITS:

1 - SUNSHINE A SLEEPER? - THE DEPARTED will be re-released to theaters this Friday, 26 January. Watch for it at your local theater, if you have not seen it. The DvD will be available 13 February, so get Netfilx (link on right sidebar), and/or put it in your queue, now! I've seen it, and with DREAMGIRLS out of the running, I think DEPARTED's closest competition is THE QUEEN.

However, as I wrote in yesterday's post, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE might squeeze through and win. The article from Reuters (linked above) stated, "Rolling Stone magazine critic Peter Travers said the best picture race was now a toss-up. If Oscar voters find the Scorsese and Eastwood films too violent, THE QUEEN too British and BABEL too multilingual, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE could win. The low-budget comedy was recently named best picture by the Producers Guild of America, a group whose choices are often echoed by the Oscars."

Another however - - The Producers Guild missed the last two years. See my recent entry for Producers Guild on my Film Awards Page (link on right sidebar). Also, the article was released after I made my post and prediction.

2 - SCORSESE/EASTWOOD BEST DIRECTOR DUEL - Interesting quote in that Reuters article, "Movie pundit Tom O'Neil was quoted as having said Eastwood and his low-profile IWO JIMA -- with U.S. ticket sales of just $2.4 million -- have 'once again ambushed the Oscar race when Martin Scorsese was out front, and was now the one to beat."

I know, with what happened to DREAMGIRLS it's easy to speculate, but I think THE DEPARTED is way out front in direction compared to MILLION DOLLAR BABY and THE AVIATOR. If Scorsese does not win this year . . . well, when?

3 - STREEP'S RECORD - Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) is the sole American contender for the best actress in the leading role. Penelope Cruz (Volver) is from Spain, while the other three are Brits Kate Winslet (Little Children) and the two Dames, Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal) Helen Mirren (The Queen). This year Streep breaks her 2002 record for the most nominations for anyone with her 14th nomination this year. The DvD will be in my mailbox Friday!!

4 - MORE INTERESTING BOX OFFICE - Gross for some other films as of 21 January (in millions):

CARS (Best Animated Film ) = $244,082,982
HAPPY FEET (Best Animated Film ) = $190,695,949
MONSTER HOUSE (Best Animated Film) = $73,661,010
PAN'S LABYRINTH (Best Foreign Language Film) = $9,932,414
VOLVER (film not nominated) = $6,718,079

The 2006 Box Office Champ - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest = $423,315,812.

The Box Office Reports from: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/